RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund 20/06/20

20 June 2020

RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund will lock horns at the Red Bull Arena in a real Bundesliga (BL) clash of titans. Maybe surprisingly, but none of their three top-flight H2Hs held at this venue has produced over 2.5 goals.

With just two games left to play, the hosts need only one point to secure a place in the Champions League for the second year running. Although unbeaten in 12 consecutive league fixtures, Julian Nagelsmann’s players have picked up only five wins during that run, drawing eight times, with seven of those matches featuring under 2.5 goals. Still, ‘Die Roten Bullen’ have been a force to be reckoned with when playing at home this season (W7, D8, L1), scoring over 1.5 goals in ten of 16 such games. Even if they concede the opening goal here, as they did in eight of 16 BL home matches, it may not be the last – Leipzig won 11 points (more than any other German side) after allowing the opener at home (W2, D5, L1).

Although a shock 2-0 home loss to Mainz brought Dortmund’s three-game league winning run to an end, the visitors have already sealed a place in the next season’s Champions League group stage. Lucien Favre’s men have racked up a five-game BL away winning run ahead of this trip, scoring over 1.5 match goals in all but one of those successes. Also, ‘Die Borussen’ often tend to produce an exciting second halve performance when they play on the road. Indeed, 68.33% of the goals (scored/conceded) away from home came after the halftime break (41/60). Curiously, none of Dortmund’s 15 BL fixtures since the turn of the year has ended in a draw (W12, L3), with ten of those results (win/loss) seeing the winner on the day keep a clean sheet.